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Methodological approach of construction business failure prediction studies: A review

机译:施工企业失败预测研究的方法论方法:综述

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摘要

Performance of bankruptcy prediction models (BPM), which partly depends on the methodological approach used to develop it, has virtually stagnated over the years. The methodological positions of BPM studies were thus investigated. Systematic review was used to search and retrieve 70 journal articles and doctoral theses. Their ‘general methods’ and ‘philosophical underpinnings’ investigated using summary of findings tables and meta-analysis. ‘General methods’ results showed positive trends in terms of techniques being used, error cost consideration and model validation, with some use of skewed data being the main drawback. For ‘philosophical underpinnings’, positivism paradigm was discovered to be at the core of BPM studies. This is deemed inadequate because of the need to consider industries’ dynamism, financial variables flaws, and social factors which actually lead to the financial status of firms. The pragmatism paradigm using mixed method is proposed. A research design framework for executing the proposed methodology is presented. This will help BPM developers go through more rigorous and robust methodology to deliver better and more valid models. Limitation of study include not reviewing studies not reported in English language and impact of different countries accounting practices on ratios. Limited availability of theses database resulted in reviewing only 4 theses.
机译:多年来,破产预测模型(BPM)的性能几乎停滞不前,而BPM的性能部分取决于开发该模型的方法论。因此,研究了BPM研究的方法论立场。系统评价用于搜索和检索70篇期刊文章和博士学位论文。他们使用调查结果表摘要和荟萃分析调查了他们的“一般方法”和“哲学基础”。 “常规方法”结果显示,在所用技术,错误成本考虑因素和模型验证方面呈积极趋势,其中一些偏斜数据的使用是主要缺点。对于“哲学基础”,发现实证主义范式是BPM研究的核心。由于需要考虑行业的动态性,财务变量缺陷和实际上导致公司财务状况的社会因素,因此认为这是不适当的。提出了使用混合方法的实用主义范式。提供了用于执行所提出的方法的研究设计框架。这将帮助BPM开发人员通过更严格,更强大的方法来提供更好,更有效的模型。研究的局限性包括不审查未用英语报告的研究以及不同国家会计惯例对比率的影响。论文数据库的可用性有限,导致仅审阅4篇论文。

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